Monday, January 2, 2012

Wednesday's Iowa Headline

Romney finishes 2nd in Iowa, Santorum holds off Gingrich for 3rd.

Mitt Romney held off a quartet of social conservatives to capture second place in the Iowa Caucuses . This will enhance his standing as the front runner in New Hampshire, now just one week away. Santorum, Gingrich, Perry and Bachmann all captured more than 10% of the vote and as a result will likely stay in the race a bit longer. This of course is exactly what Mitt Romney wanted. The longer the field stays intact the sooner  he can put the nomination away.

I fully expect to see many articles like this come Wednesday morning. There will be other methods of discrediting Ron Paul’s victory in Iowa, some creative, some not so much. Some well-disguised, but most will be completely transparent efforts. The question at this point is not whether he wins, but whether he wins by enough that ignoring it is impossible.

My Iowa prediction;

Ron Paul – 30%
Mitt Romney – 20%

Santorum, Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann will all score 11 to 15 percent and none will be damaged so badly that they drop out. This will benefit Romney, but it benefits Paul more.

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