Sheeple for Sale

 After Utah votes in June there will have been 2,265 delegates won in the Republican Primary season.

So far (after Iowa) 28 have been won, a whopping 1.24% of the total. By all sane points of view this race is a million miles from being over and yet Michele Bachmann has withdrawn indicating that the "people of Iowa have spoken clearly". Well sure, but they are the only ones for crying out loud.

Rick Perry seemed on the verge of doing the same thing, but decided to give it the old college try and stick around at least through South Carolina.

Your eight year old kid likely stuck with with her flute lessons longer than some people stay in the presidential race.

Think about it, a football game is 1.24% over at about the 14:10 mark of the first quarter, don't see a lot of teams packing it in at that point.  The major league baseball season is 1.24% over after two games, there are a lot of really bad teams and they ALL play ALL 162.

So why do the people of Iowa (apparently) speak so clearly for the rest of the country?

MONEY & SHEEPLE

It costs an astonishing amount of money to run for president and if it looks grim at any point the spiggot is getting shut off. Michele was already on fumes and Iowa was as far that as big ol' campaign bus was going. Rick on the other hand has loads of cash, although he won't stick around if there is a second poor showing in South Carolina.

Running for President should not cost a billion dollars, the system is so broken that it needs to be scrapped entirely, but that's not happening this year.

The first reason would be muted somewhat if we were not a country of sheeple. Think I'm wrong, consider this; On December 13th Rick Santorum was polling at 6% (Rasmussen) by the 28th in the same poll he was up to 16% and he ultimately won over 24% of the vote. Was this momentum the result of some amazing revelation? An altered strategy? What then?

It was of course the sheeple factor, people like to vote for a winner. If Bob is voting one way and Sally agrees well, by golly it's good enough for the sheeple. No disrepect to Mr. Santorum but had the vote happened a week earlier or a week later he wouldn't have sniffed the top spot.

In the entrance polls before the caucus we learned that an amazing 46% of the voters decided on who to vote for within just a few days of the caucus and over 1/3 of that vote went to Santorum, so in other words... he got very, very lucky. How could so many voters in Iowa have just made up their minds? Are you kidding me? These candidates have lived in your state for the last six months and half of you woke up on Tuesday, flipped a coin and voted for Santorum, unreal. Sheeple, yes sheeple.

Only a third of Iowans knew for at least the last month who they would be voting for and that tally was absolutely dominated by Ron Paul and Mitt Romny, suggesting that they are the only two candidates with any kind of real staying power or a message that actually resonates, but hey don't count out the sheeple!

In South Carolina, Rick Santorum was getting 4% (at best) in any poll before Iowa voted. In two polls after Iowa he is averaging 22%, that is meteoric and can only be explained by one thing... yup, you guessed it, sheeple.

Until you start to think for yourselves, evaluate candidates on your own and make your own decisions this process will perpetually be a joke.

Oh, nevermind, just go back to grazing.

Republican Delegate Leaderboard

* Based on the the green papers info.

Forty delegates down, Romney takes the lead alone. With South Carolina (and the Florida) being a winner take all state, whoever wins on the 21st will be the delegate leader going into Florida.

Polls indicate that it is likely to be a three way race between Romney, Gingrich and Santorum. Perry needs a big lift or he will fold, likewise for Huntsman. I also suspect that if Gingrich beats Santorum for the religious right vote that he may be out as well.

Santorum vs Paul

In a bit of a surprise, social conservatives in Iowa decided that it was better to rally behind one candidate in the hopes they could defeat Mitt Romney. Oh soo close!

Assuming that the state delegates exercise the will of the people, Romney and Santorum will receive 6 delegates and Ron Paul will receive 4.

Why is it that social conservatives avoid Ron Paul?

Is it because of his stance on abortion? Nope, he’s pro-life.

Is it because of his stance on marriage? Nope, he supports DOMA

Is it because of his faith? Nope, He’s a Christian who regularly invokes the bible or Jesus in his speeches.

There are two reasons…

First, Ron Paul supports states’ rights which would include the right to make currently illegal substances and activities legal. Many people try to paint this as “wanting” to legalize pot or prostitution. Ron Paul is personally opposed to both, but recognizes the free will of states and individuals to make these choices. The best parallel I can draw is with religion itself. Many Christians believe (and I agree in many respects) that the right to worship as we choose is being hampered by the government. In this regard we do not want the government interfering with our freedom, but are willing give it up when it is for things we find morally reprehensible. I don’t believe we can have our cake and eat it to, we must affirm the constitutional role of government or we choose another path.

Second, on his foreign policy, he has been hammered as an isolationist who is soft on terrorism and Iran while being unfriendly to Israel. It is naturally disturbing to hear these things. The reality is that Ron Paul believes in a strong national defense, that said his vision for it is admittedly and markedly different than that of his Republican colleagues. Secure our borders & protect from within. Go to war if we are attacked, but do so with a congressional declaration of war.

Ron Paul is a candidate whose reach extends beyond the Republican base while not compromising conservative values, sounds like someone the base should be rallying around.

The Donald a Spoiler

Just in case the Republican Party chooses the “wrong” candidate, Donald Trump is leaving open the possibility of an independent run. Like so many of The Donald’s other undertakings this selfless gesture is his way of looking out for our country, golly gee, what a guy!

Given the immense strength of the Republican party’s candidates whoever could he be referring to? I mean, just who exactly could be considered the wrong candidate?

Let’s analyze;

Mitt Romney? Nope he likes Mitt.
Rick Santorum? Swell guy
Newt Gingrich? Almost saved his debate, of course not.
Michele Bachmann? Such a suuuper lady, dontcha know!
Rick Perry? Peachy keen!

Let’s see, who’s left… who could it be that has Trump so frazzled? Oh wait, yes it’s…

Ron Paul

As the pundits everywhere continue their claim that Ron Paul is unelectable Donald is unintentionally telling us the truth. Ron Paul absolutely could win the party nomination and that proposition is growing in likelihood. Frankly he scares the bejeezus out of Trump and the Republican establishment and it has NOTHING to do with national security.

If Paul wins the nomination and Trump runs independent, it does effectively re-elect Obama. Think about that for a second… somebody spoiling Ron Paul’s bid instead of the other way around.

Ironic and tragic.

Wednesday's Iowa Headline

Romney finishes 2^nd in Iowa, Santorum holds off Gingrich for 3^rd.

Mitt Romney held off a quartet of social conservatives to capture second place in the Iowa Caucuses . This will enhance his standing as the front runner in New Hampshire, now just one week away. Santorum, Gingrich, Perry and Bachmann all captured more than 10% of the vote and as a result will likely stay in the race a bit longer. This of course is exactly what Mitt Romney wanted. The longer the field stays intact the sooner  he can put the nomination away.

I fully expect to see many articles like this come Wednesday morning. There will be other methods of discrediting Ron Paul’s victory in Iowa, some creative, some not so much. Some well-disguised, but most will be completely transparent efforts. The question at this point is not whether he wins, but whether he wins by enough that ignoring it is impossible.

My Iowa prediction;

Ron Paul – 30%

Mitt Romney – 20%

Santorum, Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann will all score 11 to 15 percent and none will be damaged so badly that they drop out. This will benefit Romney, but it benefits Paul more.

Iran

Is Iran a threat to Israel or stabilty in the Middle East?

The concern is that Iran is in the final stages of acquiring a nuclear weapon and that they plan to "wipe Israel off the map".

I don't know this for sure, but lets assume a couple things; yes Iran does want a Nuke and yes, Iran doesn't count Israel as one of its bestest buddies. Fair enough.

That said... is it likely that Iran would use this new found weapon aggressively against Israel or anyone else?

A couple of questions should help clear this up.

Q) Is the leadership in Iran willing to sentence all of its citizens to death?
A) While there are certainly radicals willing to commit religious suicide, it is not usually the leaders or the masses who are signing up to be martyrs. After all wasn't Osama Bin Laden found hiding in Pakistan while training other people to kill themselves for Ala? You really think that Ahmadinejad has a death wish? I don't.

Q) Has a sovereign nation ever used a nuclear weapon aggressively against another nation who also possessed "the bomb"?
A) No.

It seems to me to me that having a nuclear weapon is much more a defensive tactic than an offensive one. Consider this, no nation possessing a nuclear weapon has ever been attacked by another sovereign nation. Not with nukes, not with tanks, not with anything. Seems like a pretty good deterrent to me.

I believe

What I wish Ron Paul would say regarding foreign policy. I believe he feels this way and just has not articulated in a way that is palatble to the average american who is "fear mongered" all the time.
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The world in many ways is a scary place. From dictators, to terrorist organizations to entire foreign governments, America has its enemies and in no way should their presence be diminished.  

I believe that the United States of America has and should maintain the greatest national defense on earth. I believe that our military should be used and focused towards; securing our borders, expanding the effectiveness of intelligence and preparing to respond to any actual or imminent attack on this nation. Predominantly we should be defending our soil with soldiers on our soil.

Would I bring our troops home? Absolutely, as soon as the ships can get there. Would I allow our national defense to be compromised? Absolutely NOT!

I believe that thinly spreading our military across the globe does compromise our ability to defend our nation. I believe that fighting terrorists with tanks does compromise our ability to defend our nation.

We should as always be strong, but more than ever we need to be wise.